Can You Bet On The Presidential Election

Is it fun to gamble on politics? You bet! Pixabay/Jan Vasek

• Can You Bet On The Presidential Election In New Jersey
• Can You Still Bet On The Presidential Election
• Can You Bet On The Presidential Election In Vegas

Unless you live in Europe, this is your only opportunity to legally wager on the 2020 election. You can win without putting up any money! If posting your own cash on the election isn’t for you, you can still be a winner as part of DraftKings Sportsbook $100,000 Presidential Election Pool. Pick who becomes the next President of the United.

• Despite the general reluctance to allow betting on elections in the United States, there are two big exceptions. If you a resident of the United States who would like to wager on the presidential election and you meet the requirements, you can wager on the election via the Iowa Electronic Markets or via the website PredictIt.
• Most avid gamblers know that you can bet on the 2020 presidential election, and some of them have probably already made plenty of wagers well in advance. You can lay your money down on challenger Joe Biden or incumbent President Donald Trump. Pick the right choice, and you could come away with a hefty profit.

Everybody has a political opinion and a prediction about who will win the 2020 election. But are you willing to “put your money where your mouth is,” as the old adage goes? Well, you can bet on political outcomes, and the industry has only become bigger in recent years. Not only can you gamble on who you think will win the presidential election, but such bets might also give us a clue about who could win, according to political scientists.

Is It Legal to Bet on Political Outcomes?

Gambling in America used to be heavily regulated. Back in the 1980s and early 1990s, betting on politics was a growing industry, just like it is in sports. But former NBA star Bill Bradley, who served three terms as a New Jersey senator from 1979 to 1997, led the charge to curtail gambling. Enter PAPSA, the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act. It was a federal ban on sports gambling that curtailed betting on sports—and politics. The bipartisan effort passed the Democratic-controlled Congress and was signed into law by President George H.W. Bush in 1992, going into effect in January of 1993. Only four states were exempt from this: Oregon, Montana, Delaware and, of course, Nevada, as all four already had some sort of statewide regulated gambling.

SEE ALSO: How to Combat the Sinister Role Deepfakes Will Play in the Election

New Jersey challenged PAPSA in the courts, and it went all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, which struck down the law and handed New Jersey, and gamblers, a big victory. Congress could still get involved in the future, states still need to pass laws enabling regulated gambling, and the Federal Wire Act stands in the way of online betting, but placing wagers on politics is back in business.

As Legal Betting Online points out, “The irony of betting on the elections and events associated with those politicians attempting to outlaw gambling is not lost on the American people.”

Believe it or not, such predictive markets answering “yes” or “no” questions about politics—like, “Will Donald Trump be reelected?” or “Will Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard drop out next month?”—were allowed even before PAPSA was dumped, as regulators sort of ignored these measures. Why? “For the valuable insight they provided,” writes Sports Betting Dime. “As traders buy and sell their shares, researchers get a better idea at what the collective mind is thinking about candidates and the events surrounding them. The idea is that people are buying shares based on what they truly believe is going to happen, not just what they want to happen. These markets provide real-time insight into political campaigns, and how different events impact them.”

How Betting on Ballots Works

To find out more about the nuts and bolts of political bets, I spoke to oddsmaker Mike Pierce with online sportsbook TopBet.eu. I went to their site and asked some questions about how to place a wager and what the numbers mean, as I am a novice gambler.

For example, the site lists Donald Trump at -125. Does that mean he’s going to win or lose? “Since Trump is a -125 favorite, you would need to risk $125 to win $100 on him to be president in 2020,” Pierce explained.

TopBet.eu also lists +200 for Elizabeth Warren, but that doesn’t mean they think she’s going to win. “Conversely, if you [look at] Warren, who is +200 to be the next president, a $100 bet on her would win you $200 net profit.”

So how do they determine these odds, who gets a minus (-) sign and who gets a positive (+) sign next to their names?

“At the current moment, we win money if Trump is reelected as president and lose money if Warren is elected U.S. president,” Pierce said. “This is because 37% of cash on the 2020 U.S. presidential future is backing Warren who is a +200 underdog, while 29% of cash on the future is backing the -125 favorite Trump.”

Do Betting Markets Help Predict the Future?

The literature from academia on political betting as a predictor is a lot more supportive than you may think. Given that a good theory can describe, explain and predict, why not an independent assessment via betting?

“Prediction markets apparently originated in 1988, when the first Iowa Electronic Markets predicted the winner of the presidential election,” writes Michael Abramowicz in his article “The Politics of Prediction” published in Innovations: Technology, Governance, Globalization, an MIT Press Journal. “The founds of the Iowa Electronic Markets wanted a vehicle that would better explain the workings of the financial markets, and their approach built on the work of experimental economists who had conducted experiments using simplified financial markets in the laboratory.”

But betting on politics goes even further back to the days of post-Civil War politics. In the Journal of Economic Perspectives, Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf found that bets were a pretty good forecast of elections, even before the era of scientific surveys from 1868 to the 1940s. But an analysis of betting on the 2008 Democratic Party primary candidates by Emily West in the Journal of Politics showed a mixed result for determining the connection between belief in success and bets.

I visited RealClearPolitics and saw that while Joe Biden is leading the national polls by a little—ahead in New Hampshire and even Massachusetts (Warren’s state), taking Nevada, winning South Carolina and Texas by a wide margin, losing only Iowa—he’s trailing Warren in betting odds by a 33-point margin. I asked Pierce how that could be.

“We feel that while Biden is the more well-known candidate, it appears Warren is starting to be the more popular candidate,” he explained. “She is starting to receive more money for fundraising compared to Biden. This is a big reason why we think she will be the Democratic nominee for president next year.”

I’m not so sure, but it is fascinating that the outcomes of betting could be so different from the polls. We’ll find out next year if using your head and following the surveys is the smart wager, or gambling on your heart and betting on who you want to win could be the best plan.

One final note: Before you lay down a single dollar on a bet, do your research and make sure you’re casting your lot with a reputable site that has a good track record of paying off when you win.

John A. Tures is a professor of political science at LaGrange College in LaGrange, Georgia—read his full bio here.

The 2020 US election is coming up in just a few days, and it’s safe to say the entire world will be watching. As a matter of fact, many people will be watching to see if the bets they’ve made at top gambling websites will be winners or losers. For those who are wondering, there are many excellent 2020 election prop betting opportunities waiting for you if you know where to look for them.

Most avid gamblers know that you can bet on the 2020 presidential election, and some of them have probably already made plenty of wagers well in advance. You can lay your money down on challenger Joe Biden or incumbent President Donald Trump. Pick the right choice, and you could come away with a hefty profit.

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You can move off the beaten path to find some excellent betting opportunities in the 2020 election. These bets, often known as proposition or prop bets, look at some of the other aspects of this US election. And you can often get better odds with these wagers than if you were to stick with the typical head-to-head matchup.

In the following article, we’ll explain everything you need to know about placing prop bets on the 2020 election for real money. We’ll explain how these bets work at the top gambling websites that offer them. We’ll also take you inside some of these wagers and talk about how they might play out come Election Day and beyond.

What Are Prop Bets?

Perhaps the best way to describe prop bets is to think in terms of sports. For example, when betting on the Super Bowl each year, you can make obvious bets about who will win or lose, which team will cover the point spread, or how many points each team will score. But there are specialty bets, such as which player will score the first touchdown, how long the game will be, which songs will be played at the halftime show, and so on.

These bets are the prop bets. They are aptly-named because the gambling site, or the house, is essentially making a proposition about a possible outcome.

In the case of the 2020 election in the US, prop bets can be considered pretty much anything that isn’t the main question: who will win the presidential election? These bets can be related to the presidential election or not, but they are generally tied into all the election action taking place this coming Tuesday, November 3^rd.

They can look at serious aspects or trivial aspects of Tuesday’s action, but they must be something that can be accurately measured so that the wager can be fairly won or lost. One of the main reasons people like prop bets is because they offer more potential payback, on average, than straight bets. Considering this presidential election figures will be close, you can’t really get odds on either candidate that will result in a big payoff, at least unless you bet a lot. But you can expect some of the prop bets available to you to give you much better odds than you might otherwise hope to have.

You need to understand that each different gambling website is likely to have its own unique selection of election prop bets. As a result, you should do some shopping around to see what’s available to you so that you can find the bets that you feel confident in winning. Just remember to stick to the most reliable and effective election gambling sites.

What Do the Odds for Prop Bets Mean?

When you see the odds for 2020 election prop bets listed on different websites, you’ll see a number attached to each outcome. These numbers will have a plus or a minus in front of them. Any time you see the numbers, you’re looking at the odds for each possible outcome.

If these numbers are close to each other, it means there isn’t much separation between the two outcomes. But if the numbers are quite different, it means that there is a big favorite and a big underdog.

If there are more than two outcomes in a 2020 election prop bet, it could be that all of them have plus signs in front of the odds. That just means that no single outcome is a favorite in the sense that it is expected by a majority of the bettors to happen.

Let’s take a look at a sample set of prop bet odds to show you how it all works:

Every set of 2020 election prop bets will be based on an average bet of $100 (or whatever denomination you might be using). For the minus (or favorite), you have to bet the amount listed to win $100. And for the plus (or underdog), you have to bet $100 to win the amount listed.

In this case, you would need to bet $150 to gain $100 in return on Outcome A. And if you bet $100 on Outcome B, you would win $200 if that is the result.

It’s important to realize that you don’t have to bet $100 for the underdog or whatever the odds are for the favorite. You can bet higher or lower amounts. But the ratio set by those original odds will hold no matter the size of the bet.

Top 2020 Election Prop Bets Available

We’ve taken a look at the 2020 Election bets and odds listed by BetOnline.ag and MyBookie.ag, two excellent gambling websites. And we’ve spotted some interesting prop bets for the 2020 election that might be of interest to you. Take a look below.

The Day the Loser Concedes the Presidential Election Odds (MyBookie.ag):

• November 3, 2020: +400
• November 4, 2020: +225
• November 5, 2020: +500
• November 6, 2020: +650
• November 7, 2020: +800
• November 8, 2020: +900

• November 9, 2020: +900
• November 10, 2020: +800
• November 11, 2020: +800
• November 12, 2020: +1200
• November 13, 2020 or after: -145

This bet might seem odd to you if you haven’t been following everything that’s been going on leading up to the 2020 presidential election in the US. But current events are such that it is becoming increasingly likely that there might be a quick concession by the loser, which is usually the case.

First of all, the race is extremely tight. Even though most polls have Joe Biden with a slight edge when it comes to projecting the Electoral College points that determine the election, the margin of error is still within the range where there could be a different outcome. President Trump was able to overcome polls showing him well behind four years ago in the 2016 election.

More importantly, there is the issue of counting votes. There are more people that are expected to vote by mail in 2020 than ever before, and it’s by a huge margin. As a result, it could take a while longer than usual for those votes to be counted, especially in so-called “battleground” states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

As a result, the idea that the election might not be clearly decided either on November 3^rd (Election Day) or the morning after is in play. And if there is confusion, it is possible that the debate over who won could drag on for a while, as it did in the 2000 election. That’s why the favorite here is the for November 13^th and after.

The safest bet is obviously the November 13^th and after option, since the confusion of the mail-in ballots and the tightness of the race could certainly push it that far. But you’d be getting less than the size of your wager in return, which doesn’t seem like it’s that much of a value. It’s better to take a shot at a bigger payoff than settle for something so meager in return, especially when there are that many outcomes in play overall.

2024 US Presidential Election Odds (MyBookie.ag):

• Joe Biden: +300
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: +300
• Kamala Harris: +350
• Elizabeth Warren: +800
• Bernie Sanders: +1000
• Michelle Obama: +1000
• Andrew Cuomo: +1200
• Ted Cruz: +1200
• Josh Hawley: +1200

• Tom Cotton: +1500
• Pete Buttigieg: +1500
• Michael Bennet: +2000
• Cory Booker: +2000
• Ivanka Trump: +3000
• Mike Bloomberg: +3000
• Kanye West: +5000
• Mark Cuban: +5000
• Elon Musk: +7500

You might be wondering why anyone would want to bet on an election that is four years away when so many things can happen between now and then that could drastically change things. The simple answer is because you will never get better odds than right now.

What do we mean?

This is also a bet where you should look around at different sites to try and find the best possible odds for your chosen candidate. For example, you see that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is listed at odds of 3 to 1 to win the 2024 election. But if you check out the same bet at BetOnline.ag, her odds are 25 to 1 (+2500). Obviously, you’re better off choosing those odds if you’re an AOC fan.

Looking at the odds at MyBookie.ag, you can see that they believe AOC is going to make her move in the next four years. In fact, they have her as a co-favorite with Biden. Many people think that, even if Biden does win, his age might prevent him from even running again in 2024, let alone beating the next Republican candidate.

Notice also that there isn’t a Republican candidate anywhere in the top few choices. You have to go down to Ted Cruz, sitting at 12 to 1, before you see a GOP possibility listed. The dismissal of the Republican Party for 2024 seems a bit premature, as the party has proven to be resilient as far as elections go.

How about some of the long shots? Pete Buttigieg at 15 to 1 is an interesting selection. Mayor Pete’s campaign ran out of steam this year, but his recent TV appearance speaking out against President Trump seem to reveal a growing confidence that could serve him well in four years.

Another interesting play at 30 to 1 is Ivanka Trump. Let’s assume that President Trump defies the polls once again and manages to defeat Biden, eventually serving four more years. If that term goes well, his supporters might want to see the presidency stay in the family.

Of course, any bet like this is purely speculative. And there is no way to know if any of these people are even going to run in 2025. But you won’t be able to do much better, odds-wise, than some of these outcomes in any of your 2020 Election prop bets, which makes this one pretty valuable.

Over/Under Bets

If you want a different approach to betting on the 2020 election with prop bets for real money, you might want to try an over/under approach. Instead of trying to predict the outcome of the presidential race or even a senatorial race, you can focus on the numbers. The oddsmakers will set a certain number, and you have to decide if the actual result will go over or under that amount.

Over/under bets are popular in sports like football. And they can be a way to use prop bets on the 2020 election to your advantage. BetOnline.ag features some interesting ones.

Voter Turnout in the 2020 Election:

• Over 149 ½ million voters: -225
• Under 149 ½ million voters: +160

This is an interesting one because of the nature of this election. As we said, many people are preparing to vote via mail-in ballot. This could certainly push the totals skyward from what we usually expect.

In addition to that, this election in particular seems to have inspired many people who haven’t voted in recent years (or in elections before) to get involved. Those who have been pleased with how the last four years have gone are fired up to make sure it stays that way. And those on the other side, perhaps frustrated with how things have gone during President Trump’s term, might coming out en masse to keep it from happening again.

It stands to reason that the turnout will be higher this time around. In 2016, only 138 million people voted. Will enough people get involved that the number soars above the over, and is that risk worth taking at such low odds?

Here is another interesting 2020 election over/under prop bet at BetOnline.ag.

House Seats Won by Democrats:

• Over 209 ½ Seats: -2000
• Under 209 ½ Seats: +900

Can You Bet On The Presidential Election In New Jersey

Because so many people are concentrating on the presidential and senatorial elections, where control could flip from one party to another, there hasn’t been as much focus on the House of Representatives. But it could provide the opportunity for a winning prop bet for those who are willing to go down that road.

Right now, there are 232 Democrats and 197 Republicans in the House. Most expert predictions seem to suggest that they’ll stay in that position in the upcoming election. Republicans would have to flip 13 seats to get to the over.

Yet the oddsmakers are clearly trying to push you to take the Republican side because of the unfavorable odds the other way around. You might now want to bet $20 to make $1, which is what you’d have to do if you go with Democrats.

Can You Still Bet On The Presidential Election

How you bet on politics in 2020 could depend on what your overall goal is. Are you happy with a tiny profit? Or is it a case of trying to win more with a smaller wager?

Conclusion

Can You Bet On The Presidential Election In Vegas

We hope that you now have a better feel for making prop bets on the United States 2020 election. Make sure to look around for the best possible odds for whatever bet you want to make. And always make sure to stick with reliable gambling websites for these wagers! Good luck.