Canelo Vs Kovalev Predictions

Canelo Alvarez (52-1-2, 35 KOs) vs Sergey Kovalev (34-3-1, 29 KOs) Canelo Alvarez (-485) Sergey Kovalev (+385) Over the last three to four years, Kovalev has been an underdog on three other occasions besides this fight against Canelo. Kovalev was the underdog in both fights against Andre Ward and in the rematch against Eleider Alvarez. The TSS Prediction Page Returns with Picks and Analyses of Canelo vs Kovalev. October 31, 2019. The Sweet Science.

1. Alvarez Vs Kovalev Predictions
2. Canelo Alvarez Vs Kovalev Predictions

On Saturday, Canelo Alvarez will make an audacious leap from middleweight to light heavyweight, where he will take on WBO beltholder Sergey Kovalev at the MGM Grand, Las Vegas on DAZN (6 p.m. PT/9 p.m. ET).

Canelo, who is ranked No. 3 on The Ring’s pound-for-pound list, turned professional as a teenager in 2005. He steadily built his career fighting as a local attraction in different locations around Mexico against imported fighters while learning his trade. Since then, Canelo has unified world titles at junior middleweight and middleweight. The 28-year-old boxer-puncher has defeated Shane Mosley (UD 12), Austin Trout (UD 12), Erislandy Lara (SD 12), Miguel Cotto (UD 12), Gennadiy Golovkin (MD 12) and Danny Jacobs (UD 12) en route to becoming the biggest star in boxing. [Editor’s Note: The Ring doesn’t recognize the WBA “Regular” super middleweight title. Instead The Ring recognizes Callum Smith who is the “Super” champion.]

Kovalev, who is rated No. 2 by The Ring at 175-pounds, turned professional in 2009. The Russian’s career took off in 2013 when he won the WBO 175-pound title, bludgeoning Nathan Cleverly into defeat in four rounds. Although he wanted to face Adonis Stevenson, the fight wasn’t made and he had to wait until the following year, when he bested the ageless Bernard Hopkins to add the IBF and WBA titles to his growing collection. “Krusher” lost his titles in controversial fashion against Andre Ward in the fall of 2016. He lost the rematch, but was able to regain the vacant WBO belt after Ward retired. He has since lost and regained it against Eleider Alvarez.

How will Canelo (52-1-2, 35 knockouts) deal with the size and strength of a legitimate light heavyweight? Will Kovalev (34-3-1, 29 KOs) be able impose his jab and keep the naturally quicker Mexican honest and hold up under his body attack?

Online gambling group William Hill lists Canelo as a 2/9 (-450) favorite, while Kovalev is priced at 3/1 (+300); the draw is 25/1 (+2500).

Here’s how the experts see it:

THE RING MAGAZINE/RINGTV.COM

TOM GRAY: CANELO UD

I believe that Kovalev and trainer Buddy McGirt will formulate a game plan that will trouble Canelo. The Russian titleholder has huge advantages in weight, strength, height and reach, which I suspect will lead to jab-and-grab type tactics. Team Canelo will be expecting that, however, and I see the Mexican star utilizing his counterpunching ability to score well with eye-catching power shots from the outside. If Kovalev is being punished for using the jab, then he may stop using it as much as he needs to. Also, when Kovalev attempts to clinch, I think Canelo will free his hands to score well on the inside. Canelo will likely edge this fight, but it will be a lot closer than many people are expecting.

MICHAEL WOODS: CANELO MD

Mikey Garcia thought he saw something. We saw how that turned out for him, when Errol Spence gave him the business. The Canelo vs. Kovalev fight will not play out in close to the same fashion. You will see even rounds, tight rounds … but Canelo is so savvy. I trust his judgement, I trust that he knows, from casing Kovalev, that he will be able to box his way, cautiously, to a decision win. Canelo, by MD.

MARTY MULCAHEY: CANELO UD

A very good match-up of styles, and importantly there were no pre-conditions for this fight as has been the case with previous Saul “Canelo” Alvarez fights. I have more concerns about how Canelo’s hand-speed and frame reacts to the added weight than I do about Kovalev. I have always appreciated Kovalev (I believe he defeated Andre Ward in first bout). But like others have witnessed an appreciable decline in form in the last three years. That is why I am picking Alvarez, who will attack the body early and reap the benefits late for a unanimous decision victory. The size difference does give me some apprehension; but Alvarez showed against Golovkin and Jacobs that he can absorb punishment and big punches with his chin or defuse it with his feet. Kovalev wins some of the middle rounds in an admirable fightback, but loses the opening two and final four emphatically.

ANSON WAINWRIGHT: CANELO UD

Really intriguing fight. This is a sizeable jump in weight for Canelo against a career light heavyweight. Kovalev is no Rocky Fielding and Canelo will have to be careful. It’s a gamble for Canelo and Golden Boy. However, it looks like a calculated one. Kovalev is now 36 and starting to creek. Kovalev is no longer the fighter he once was, but to his credit he has morphed into more of a boxer than earlier in his career. It will still take an exceptional fighter to beat him, but he’s on the edge of the cliff and Canelo will pick and prod his openings early while being cautious of the Russian’s jab and thumping power. Canelo will step it up in the later rounds and work his way toward a unanimous decision.

NORM FRAUENHEIM: CANELO UD

Sergey Kovalev’s resilience in an ongoing comeback gets a defining test against a Canelo who only gets better. Kovalev has advantages, both obvious and intangible. His jab is a thing of beauty, a mix of power and precision. He appears to have the renewed confidence of a man who has encountered adversity and learned from it. Kovalev is also taller. But the light heavyweight is not necessarily bigger than the middleweight, which is a key difference. Canelo’s heavily-muscled upper torso on top of heavy legs is a well-balanced force hard to shake and harder to stop. It also provides Canelo with all of the leverage he’ll need to deliver punishing body blows. He’s smart enough to be cautious, and he will be throughout 12 rounds for a points victory on all three cards.

MICHAEL MONTERO: CANELO PTS

A handful of old boxing adages come to mind … “A good big man always beats a good little man,” “Styles make fights,” “Kill the body and the head will fall,” and lastly, “Speed kills.” When it comes to Canelo-Kovalev, all of the above come into play. Canelo has never stopped an elite opponent north of junior middleweight, yet his exceptional head movement and underrated defense figure to give Kovalev fits as he attempts to keep distance with his jab. All of that points to a distance fight in Las Vegas, which leads us to another old adage. The Russian will have to win nine rounds to get the draw. Look for Canelo to win by decision in a fight that is closer and more competitive than many expect.

BOXING INSIDERS

REGGIE JOHNSON (FORMER TWO-DIVISION WORLD CHAMPION): CANELO KO

This fight is a tough one to call with Canelo moving up two weight classes from 160 to 175-pounds. In 1998, that same opportunity was presented to me and I jumped on that grand opportunity and knocked out William Guthrie and won my second world title. I feel this is a fight Canelo will win, but it will be more difficult for him. I like Canelo and his awesome body shots in this fight. Canelo by late-round body shots KO.

MIKE ALTAMURA (MANAGER): CANELO TKO 8

I see some shaky spots early for Canelo, especially with closing the distance as Kovalev fires straight arrows. Eventually he gets his range and systematically breaks down Kovalev to the body for a mid-to-late stoppage.

DUKE MCKENZIE (FORMER THREE-WEIGHT WORLD TITLEHOLDER/TV ANALYST): CANELO UD

Canelo vs. Kovalev is a fascinating match up, because when a boxer moves up in weight it’s normally the lighter weight divisions. Canelo is moving up not one, but two weight divisions. Canelo undoubtedly is looking for legendary status. With one solitary loss to Floyd “Money” Mayweather, Canelo has bossed everyone he has fought and looked good doing so. Kovalev is a proud champion and served the light heavyweight division for many years and looks ready to go. Kovalev is tired and shopworn he can no longer pull the trigger to close the show. Canelo is too smart. He wins this fight via a unanimous decision to gain legendary status.

CAMILLE ESTEPHAN (PROMOTER, EYE OF THE TIGER): CANELO TKO

A very risky fight for both. Canelo has to deal with a giant compared to him, yet he will probably chop him down like a tree. I think Canelo stops him late.

OSWALDO KULCHE (PROMOTER, PROMOCIONES DEL PUEBLO): CANELO TKO 11

I think Kovalev will be too slow for Canelo, who will outbox Kovalev with speed and the stop him in the late rounds. If Kovalev connects, it could be an exciting match.

CARL MORETTI (VICE PRESIDENT OF TOP RANK): CANELO TKO 11

There’s an old song, “If I could turn back the hands of time.” Well, for Kovalev, I don’t think he can. [Buddy] McGirt will have him ready with a great game plan but Canelo is in his prime and it just won’t be enough. Then again, I think the Cowboys will win the Super Bowl.

ERIC BOTTJER (MATCHMAKER, MATCHROOM): CANELO TKO 9

I think Kovalev should try and make it a street fight at the beginning. Whether he does or not, Canelo will avoid serious trouble and take over after five rounds. The end will come from an accumulation of punches. I think Canelo by stoppage in nine rounds.

CAMERON DUNKIN (PROMOTER, NOW BOXING PROMOTIONS): KOVALEV PTS

Kovalev has a great jab. GGG landed so many jabs on Canelo and he’s so much bigger than Canelo. But with that said, Canelo is younger, faster and a great fighter and a great champion, so I could be nuts. I may be wrong, but I liked [Artur] Beterbiev, and everyone said I was wrong, but it went the way I thought, so I’ll stick with Kovalev by decision.

VADIM KORNILOV (MANAGER): KOVALEV TKO

I believe that if Kovalev will be fully trained and prepared for this fight he can win the fight by stoppage. If he’s not fully prepared, Canelo can stop him with body shots.

STEPHEN EDWARDS (TRAINER): CANELO TKO

I like Canelo by stoppage. I think Kovalev’s jab will be tough early. But Kovalev doesn’t have a mid-range game or inside game. At some point, Canelo gets in that range like Ray Leonard did against Donnie Lalonde and he stops Kovalev in a great fight.

Alvarez Vs Kovalev Predictions

JOHN SCULLY (TRAINER): CANELO UD

I was originally picking Kovalev and convincingly at that, but as I think about it the more, I think that Canelo is going to utilize his great head movement and counterpunching ability and come away with a surprising 12-round unanimous decision. As long as he stays off the ropes and out of the corners, I think he is going to be too shifty for Sergey.

WAYNE MCULLOUGH (FORMER WORLD CHAMPION/TRAINER): CANELO KO 9

I think most people think it’s going to be hard for the smaller Canelo. But I think he will be too slick and counterpunch Kovalev pretty easily. Kovalev needs room to let his right hands go behind his jabs, but I think they will be too slow and Canelo will get close and land heavy punches to the head then body and force a stoppage win around the ninth.

MARIO ABRAHAM: (MANAGER): CANELO UD

I think Canelo wins a unanimous decision. Kovalev is too slow for Canelo. Canelo could get the KO with body shots, but I like him by unanimous decision.

KALLE SAUERLAND (PROMOTER, SAUERLAND EVENT): CANELO TKO

I think it’s a real test for Canelo bearing in mind the divisions he’s skipped over. Kovalev certainly still packs a punch, but we’ve all seen the weakness to the body and I expect Canelo to go hard to the body and win by stoppage.

FINAL TALLY

18-2 in favor of Canelo

Questions and/or comments can be sent to Anson at [email protected]and you can follow him on Twitter @AnsonWainwright

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A few short months ago, absolutely no one in boxing was thinking about a clash between Mexico’s Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and light heavyweight titlist Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev of Russia. No one. Then, just before the full-fledged light heavyweight signed a contract to face Britain’s Anthony Yarde, the first word came that someone, somewhere, was floating the idea of a Canelo vs Krusher match and, no, this was not a joke. In fact, the talk was serious enough to cause Kovalev and his team at Main Events to pause and consider their options before proceeding with the Yarde fight. And once that was in the books, Canelo wasted no time in putting a contract in front of Kovalev, one dictating that the 36-year-old Russian would be back in the ring little more than two months after his grueling struggle with Yarde, but one also that “Krusher” was only too happy to sign, representing as it does the biggest payday of his career. And so it has come to pass, an unlikely and unexpected duel, and so the fearless contributors to The Fight City offer their picks for one of the most fascinating matches of recent years. Check ’em out:

Sergey Kovalev has gotten to a point in his career where he operates solely by using his best attributes: his jab and his overall outside boxing ability. The aura of the “Krusher” may be diminishing, but this version of Kovalev is far more dangerous than many, Canelo included, may anticipate going into this fight. Kovalev’s strongest attributes happen to be some of Canelo’s weak points, as shown in his 24 rounds with Golovkin. Taller fighters with an educated jab that control distance well can keep Canelo from getting into his rhythm, and hence I believe Kovalev will have the upper hand early. I do think that a fighter of Canelo’s youth and ring IQ will be able to make adjustments though, and in this case he will be forced to work his way inside and target the body. His ability to pull out the win might hinge on his ability to close strong, which is another area where Canelo has often struggled to perform in. I do think Alvarez will find a way to pull out a close decision victory, but it certainly won’t be easy. — Alden Chodash

Kovalev by stoppage. — Eliott McCormick

The unexpected big fight of 2019.

Make no mistake, Canelo will find it challenging to outbox Kovalev for twelve rounds. Despite his advancing years, Kovalev stays busy behind a long and versatile jab, whereas Canelo fights in spurts and has a relatively low punch output. Canelo will no doubt be targeting Kovalev’s midriff to take his legs away (look for Alvarez to slip inside the jab and then counter with a left hook to the body) and if Kovalev is as vulnerable to a body attack as many believe, I can see the Mexican breaking him down and stopping him in the late rounds. But can the smaller man punch with the same authority and frequency at 175? He appears to have bulked up, which suggests an emphasis on power and strength, but more bulk could also hinder stamina and quickness. All told I can’t help feeling that Canelo is getting Kovalev, a still formidable light heavyweight but no longer the “Krusher” of old, at just the right time. I’m less confident about my prediction now than when the match was first announced, but Canelo by late stoppage remains the pick here. — Lee Wylie

Somewhere in the middle rounds, Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev is going to find his groove behind that heavy jab and start feeding Canelo some serious 100 proof pain like it’s premium, triple-aged Stolichnaya. However, while he may get the Mexican woozy, Canelo’s a tough bastard, as he showed in his battles with Golovkin. He’ll stay on his feet and keep battling back, looking to land the big body shot that buckles Kovalev’s legs. But his tequila won’t be as potent as the vodka and in the end the bigger, stronger man will, in the eyes of everyone but Canelo’s most ardent fans, get the better of it. And then the Vegas judges will do what the Vegas judges do in Canelo fights. Alvarez by bullshit decision. — Robert Portis

Some believe the Mexican is attempting a weight division too far.

Canelo can stop certain opponents like Amir Khan and Rocky Fielding, but he couldn’t stop Daniel Jacobs or Golovkin, so he very likely won’t be able to stop Kovalev. Canelo’s greatest strength, that he’s a true step-to-your-opponent-never-back-up Mexican boxer means if Kovalev brings it, Canelo’s going to get hit repeatedly and harder than he’s ever been hit before. I say “if” because Kovalev is aging and can be inconsistent. That said, Krusher’s corner, led by the great Buddy McGirt, should have him dialed in. Buddy has gone over the films, particularly that of the Mayweather fight, where Floyd totally figured Canelo out, exposed him and, thereby beat his ass like a drum. There are lessons for Krusher there. The Russian will have to pressure Canelo, who is known to fade in the later rounds. If so, and if Kovalev is effectively aggressive, Canelo will take his beating the way he took it from Money May, like the true Mexican boxer he is. And as he’s doing so, he may find himself wishing he had stayed at his natural weight and given Golovkin that well-deserved trilogy fight. Only Canelo’s great beard may prevent him being knocked out. Kovalev by decision. — Ralph M. Semien

Canelo is almost daring us to bet against him on this one, especially when odds favor him four-to-one. While I don’t like ascribing too much value to fighters’ demeanor during the hype-building phase, I really don’t like what I saw from Kovalev in the buildup to this main event. The Russian was practically swooning at their first press conference, asking Canelo to take a selfie and thanking him profusely for the payday. Some might call it sportsmanlike, but to me it just signals Kovalev lacking the requisite seriousness and drive. I might be wrong, but I gotta go with my gut: Canelo by decision in a less-than-thrilling fight in which Kovalev leaves us wishing he had focused more on “krushing” the Mexican instead of just harboring a crush on him. — Rafael Garcia

The Kovalev jab will need to be a big factor if “Krusher” is to triumph.

Canelo Alvarez is younger and has the edge in career trajectory over Kovalev, who has been put through the ringer the last few years. There’s also the issue of asking if this fight would have been made if Kovalev weren’t coming off a very recent and difficult brawl, and if Canelo and his team didn’t believe they were in a position to take advantage. That said, even a dented version of Sergey Kovalev has one of the best jabs in the sport, can still punch, and he seems to know what’s at stake. I sense this is a bridge too far for Canelo and that Kovalev will pull out the win. — Patrick Connor

I think Canelo has a stylistic edge in that his strengths line up with Kovalev’s weaknesses. His head and upper body movement, counter-punching, and body work could be too much for the aging “Krusher.” But I also can’t help thinking he’s bitten off more than he can chew. Kovalev is a strong light heavyweight, with serious power, and a jab that will give Canelo flashbacks to his first fight with Golovkin. I’m leaning toward Kovalev being too strong and too busy for the smaller man. I could see Canelo starting to figure out Kovalev down the stretch, but I also envision the extra weight slowing him down. I’ll go with Kovalev deserving a close but clear decision, though the judges may score it otherwise. — Hunter Breckenridge

Can Kovalev take inspiration from Floyd’s one-sided win over Canelo?

When this fight was first mooted, I thought Canelo might be biting off a bit more than he could chew, and as it draws nearer that feeling holds. Kovalev just has so many physical advantages that it’s hard to see them not making a meaningful difference in the ring. Yes, Kovalev is not the force he once was, and he came close to being stopped by a less-talented boxer in his last fight. But Anthony Yarde is a big, strong, power-punching light-heavyweight, and Canelo is not. Of course, Canelo does not need to knock Kovalev out to win. He’s the fresher, younger fighter, the better counter-puncher, and it’s no great insight to say his route to success will involve targeting the Russian’s body. But Kovalev is going to be sticking his long, heavy jab in Canelo’s face all night, and under Buddy McGirt’s influence he’s shown a renewed ability to stick to a game plan for twelve rounds. Kovalev on points. — Matt O’Brien

For me this fight isn’t as competitive as many think it is. Although Kovalev still has some gas in the tank as his victories over Alvarez and Yarde demonstrate, Canelo will be too much for him at this stage in his career. Not even a great game-plan and savvy trainer in Buddy McGirt will make enough of a difference. I see Canelo using his significant advantages in speed and athleticism to make Kovalev miss and make him pay. Alvarez will be able to get inside Kovalev’s jab and rip to the body, where the Russian is vulnerable. Canelo by late round stoppage. — Jamie Rebner

Five years ago I’d have said Canelo was making the biggest mistake in his life moving up to fight Kovalev. But time moves quickly, people age, and right now, Kovalev is simply too long in the tooth. He’s not the knockout machine with skills to match when at his best. He’s still good, but not that good. Throw in the fact that it’s almost Nevada state law that Saul Alvarez cannot lose a decision, and a clear picture starts to emerge. Canelo by comfortable decision. — Sean Crose

Against Golovkin, Canelo proved his chin was made of Mexican steel.

Originally, when this match was announced I automatically thought Canelo would roll the Krusher over with body shots. After a while I had to be reminded of the sheer size difference, Krusher’s experience, and Canelo’s stamina issues (though Kovalev is not known for his stamina either). Could the Krusher pull off a win? I think definitely yes: he’s stronger, rangy and has an excellent jab. But the reality is we’re in Canelo’s world, the new king of the sport. He’s made improvements with each match, and his relentless body attack is going to take its toll on an opponent with a history of a soft midsection. Add in the Mexican’s popularity with Vegas judges and I think Krusher’s fate is sealed. Canelo by decision. —Jeffrey Fuss

Canelo certainly has cojones moving up two weight divisions to fight somebody of Kovalev’s pedigree, but there’s a reason he didn’t seek out a match with, say, Artur Beterbiev. Kovalev largely outclassed Anthony Yarde two months ago, but took too many clean shots from a guy who, frankly, isn’t in the top ten for the division. While ‘Krusher’ can box beautifully when on form, as demonstrated by the clinic he put on in the rematch against Eleider Alvarez, questions remain about his gas tank and vulnerability to body shots. If Canelo can bring his speed up to 175, moving in to land well-placed liver shots and evading the Russian’s jab with his head movement, he should take a decision. His chin withstood the best efforts of Gennadiy Golovkin over 24 rounds, so Kovalev’s vaunted power might not be as potent a weapon as some imagine. It won’t be easy, and Canelo’s engine can fail him sometimes as well, but I see him taking a relatively close, but unanimous, points victory. — Rob Lownie

Andre Ward showed that the “Krusher” could be crushed.

Kovalev has a ramrod jab, and Canelo took plenty of left leads from Golovkin, so I’m skeptical that the Mexican can handle that same kind of attack after moving up two weight classes. Given that Canelo isn’t a tall middleweight, let alone at light heavyweight, I suspect he’ll lose a touch of agility after putting on a few more pounds of muscle. That said, Canelo’s the more skilled fighter overall, but I think 175 might be a step too far. The Russian is not in his prime, but I think he’s got plenty left in the tank. Kovalev will score a knockdown and win by decision. — Joshua Isard

Kovalev may have a powerful jab, but there’s no way he can match the endurance of the younger Canelo, who battled Golovkin twice and never hit the canvas. Yes, Golovkin was post-prime, but so is Kovalev. Some say the size difference between Canelo and Kovalev makes this a dangerous fight for the Mexican, but let’s remember that Kovalev is very timable. It will only take Canelo a few rounds to find a way to work his smaller frame to the inside where he’ll land powerful body shots. On paper, Canelo may be taking a risk, but the reality is that Kovalev, who has a history of fading in later rounds, will be lucky if he makes it to the final bell. Besides, there’s too much money riding on Canelo for his handlers to risk him losing on the scorecards. The only way Kovalev wins on Saturday is if he knocks Canelo out. Kovalev must know he has virtually no chance of winning, and he probably doesn’t care. Canelo is the fourth highest-paid athlete in the world. When Kovalev exits the ring on Saturday night with another loss on his record, he will be able to retire a very rich man. — Blake Cass

Here’s my dream scenario: Sergey Kovalev knocks Canelo Alvarez out and then gets destroyed by Artur Beterbiev in his next fight. We get the satisfaction of Canelo getting iced, followed by Kovalev’s painful comeuppance at the hands of a Montreal-based fighter. Life, however, is rarely that sweet. The pick here is Canelo via stoppage, with superior defense frustrating Kovalev and neutralizing his vaunted jab, followed by a body shot knockout in the late rounds. — Zachary Alapi

The more I think about it, the more I anticipate that weight and size are going to be less significant factors on Saturday night than many expect. And while I appreciate the fact that Sergey Kovalev remains a skilled and dangerous boxer at the rather advanced age of 36, Canelo just has more tools in his toolbox. I also believe he’s more durable, which means the Mexican, not “Krusher,” may prove to be the puncher in this fight. Add in his defensive ability and his skill in going to the body and I believe it all adds up to a very frustrating night for the Russian. After all, if an inexperienced Anthony Yarde could get to Kovalev and shake him, why would anyone doubt Canelo’s ability to do the same? It should be competitive early, hopefully even dramatic and memorable, but Canelo will at some point hurt Kovalev, put him on the defensive, and then cruise to a decision. — Michael Carbert

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