When Do You Place Your Bet In Blackjack

BETTING AT BLACKJACK

By Henry Tamburin

One of the most often asked question from blackjack players is 'how should I bet?' You've got several options and I'll discuss them in this article and offer my recommendation.

• The insurance is in case the dealer receives a blackjack, and you put out half of your original bet as the insurance. Assuming the dealer does have a blackjack, you win 2-1 on your insurance wager. To illustrate how this works, let’s say that you make a $10 bet, and the dealer shows an ace.
• When the player's turn comes, they place a bet equal to the original bet, and the dealer gives the player just one card, which is placed face down and is not turned up until the bets are settled at the end of the hand. With two fives, the player may split a pair, double down, or just play the hand in the regular way.
• The dealer has blackjack, but you don’t. Now let’s take a look at the net results of these scenarios, assuming that your original stake was $100 and you placed an insurance bet of $50. You lose your initial stake of $100 and the insurance bet of $50. Net loss is $150. You win $100 from your initial stake but lose the insurance bet.

You place your bet, you let that sucker spin, and you either win or you lose.

Flat bet

This means betting the same amount all the time. Most players don't like to bet this way because they figure if the dealer wins more hands then them they'll never win any money. Also players feel it's boring betting this way. They prefer the thrill of sometimes betting more in the hopes that when they do so, they will win the hand and make a nice profit.

Here are the facts on flat betting. If you bet say $5 on every hand in a standard multiple deck game the house will have an edge of 0.5% against the skilled basic strategy player. That means you will lose on average 0.5% of every wager you make. So if you bet $10 on every hand and average 80 hands per hour you will have made a total of $800 worth of bets. The casino expects to earn 0.5% of the $800 or $4.00. Of course the more likely result is that you'll win or lose much more than $4 after an hour of play. But on average you can expect over time to lose at the rate of $4 per hour.

Let's take an example of a player flat betting $10 on every hand. It's is a conservative betting strategy that leads to a relatively low theoretical loss rate. The fluctuation in this player's bankroll will also be low which means the likelihood he'll have a big winning or losing session is not great.

Progressive betting

This is where things get interesting. Progressive betting means varying your bets in some way from one hand to the next rather than always betting the same amount on every hand. There are all different types of betting progressions but they all have one common denominator. You either decrease or increase your next bet depending upon whether the hand you just played won or lose.

Win progressions encourage you to increase your bet size after a winning hand. For example you make a minimum bet of $10 and if you win, you raise your next stakes on next hand to $20.

There are all different kinds of win progressions. The most common is a 1-2-3-5 progression. This means you increase your bet by the above multiples after each winning hand but as soon as you experience a loss, you start the progression over with a 1 unit bet.

When Do You Raise Your Bet In Blackjack

Proponents of win progressions will tell you that you'll win more money if you win 5 consecutive hands compared to the amount you lose if you lose 5 consecutive hands. Of course what they don't tell you is that you never know when that 5 consecutive winning hand streak will occur.

There are also betting progressions in which you increase your bet following a loss. These Martingale type betting progression are dangerous and you never consider using them

There is also hybrid betting progressions, which have you increase your bets following a win, but after two or three success wins you lock up some profit and gradually regress your bets. The creativity of progressive bettors is never ending.

First of all, betting progressions do not change the 0.5% house edge one iota. There has never been a correlation between the hand just won (or lost) and you chance of winning the next hand. In other words using the criteria of the result of one hand (W/L) to base how you bet on the next hand has no scientific validity. So betting progressions in the long run don't work in the sense that won't improve your long-term chances of winning.

But here's what betting progressions will do. First off they increase the fluctuation in your session bankroll compared to flat betting. This means you can win more using a betting progression compared to flat betting but you can also lose more. Secondly, betting progressions will increase the amount of money you wager per hour compared to flat betting. If a $10 bettor uses a 1-2-3-5 betting progression, his average bet will $20. Over an hour he will average $20 times 80 hands or $1600 worth of bets. The casinos expected win is 0.5% of $1600 or $8. In other words a $10 progressive bettor stands to lose twice as much per hour as a $10 flat bettor.

Here's a tip to save you some money in the long run if you insist on using a betting progression. Instead of starting your progression at $10, start at a lower amount (ie. $5). This will reduce your average bet to $10 per hour and cut you hourly theoretical loss rate in half.

But in the long run flat betting and betting progressions don't work in the sense they won't change the house edge against you and you will lose in the long run. So what betting system works? That my friends is as card counting.

With card counting you know when you have the edge based on the change in the composition of the decks and therefore you'll know when it's the right time to bet more. So unlike betting progressions that are based on whether you win or lose the previous hands, card counting is based on the mix of cards that were played on previous hands. If more small value cards were played in previous rounds, there are more big value cards left in the unplayed cards and the edge shifts from dealer to player. This would be the best time to bet more.

But I'm realist. Not a whole lot of average blackjack players have the time or mental concentration during play that is required to master one of the popular point count card counting systems. These are readily available in blackjack books. But even though millions of blackjack books have been sold since Ed Thorp's classic book, Beat The Dealer (circa 1962) first revealed card counting to the masses, the number of players who can successful win money in the long run at blackjack number in the hundreds and thousands.

So what's the answer to betting at blackjack for the average player? I asked Don Pronovost that same question about 2 years ago. Don is a software developer that markets blackjack training software (www.HandheldBlackjack.com). He spent the better part of 2 years and 36+ billion computer simulated hands looking for the solution to this dilemma. What he developed is nothing short of revolutionary - Speed Count.

Speed Count is unlike any conventional card counting system. It's much simpler to master and requires much less concentration when you play. And unlike progressive betting systems, Speed Count will give you a verifiable advantage over the casino. Frank SCoblete and I teach Speed Count in a weekend course. For more information visit www.goldentouchblackjack.com or call 1-866-WIN-BJ21.

So now that you know the scoop on betting at blackjack, I wish you many aces and faces the next time you play.

The house always wins. But when it comes to real money blackjack, the way the house edge works is quite a bit different than in other games.

Before I dive into the topic, let’s make sure we’re all on the same page on this one—there’s not a game in existence where the house doesn’t have an edge.

That funny phrase about how “the house always wins” isn’t just a clever casino spiel, it’s reality. Casinos could not exist if they didn’t have an edge. It just wouldn’t make sense from a business standpoint.

Every game you play in a casino has a house edge. And how large that edge is depends on the rules the casino puts in place to some extent, and on you to some extent—your strategy, your tactics, your knowledge of the game, your decisions on how you play and why you make the plays that you do. All of these things affect how large the house’s edge truly is.

So, how does that house edge work for blackjack, anyway? Let’s take a look.

Start Thinking in Percentages

If you don’t like math, you’re probably not going to like gambling much. Or, at the very least, you’re not going to be very good at it.

Now, as mentioned before, there are many factors that determine the house’s edge, but you’re looking at anything between 0.5% (if you’re implementing a good blackjack strategy) and a few percent (or even more).

There’s a reason so many gambling movies focus on blackjack. It’s one of the games where you can potentially come out on top if you know what you’re doing.

Why? Because the house edge only really means something for a statistically significant number of hands. What that little percentage up there means is that, on average, all players who are playing blackjack are going to lose about 0.5% of what they bet over time.

It’s clear right away why this only means something across a large number of bets. If you bet $100 and lose a hand, there’s no possible way to lose 50 cents. You either win some money, you lose some money, or you end up neutral.

But if you add up all the bets of all the players who are currently on the floor of a casino, and you start to measure the amount won and the amount lost over time, you’ll see that the house is going to be up about 50 cents a hand on average.

Casinos are profitable for precisely this reason. The rules are set up so that, statistically and over time, house losses are negated by house wins, and a slight profit is made. Slots tend to have the worst odds (and thus, are most profitable for the house), but the house holds an edge in almost every game available to you. But there are rare exceptions.

What Determines the House Edge

There are a number of factors that specifically determine the house edge. First and foremost is strategy. If you don’t know what you’re doing and don’t have a clear strategy, the house edge is going to be closer to 2% than 0.5%.

Other rules that can often feel completely strange or incalculable to new players also affect the house edge. For example, the amount you can win if you play a natural (blackjack—21) plays a big role in the house edge.

You’ll find that some casinos will pay you 3:2 on a natural (which means, for example, that you get $15 on a $10 bet), but many other casinos have moved to paying 6:5 (you get $12 if you get blackjack on a $10 bet). That greatly increases the house edge, so avoid it if you can.

Other rules play a factor—does the dealer hit or stand on a soft 17? Can you double after a split? Can you double on any first two cards? How many hands can you re-split to? Can you re-split aces? Can you hit on re-split aces? What about when a dealer gets a blackjack—do you only lose your original bet? What’s the surrender rule?

All of these seemingly insignificant rules play a huge role in the house’s edge, but remember—the house is winning over time over many different hands.

You don’t have to play a lot of different hands, you can come out on top.

Beat the House – Walk Away When You’re Winning

If you decide that the house edge in the casino you’re playing in is, say, 1%, that means you’re losing about 1% of whatever you’re betting over time.

When Can You Raise Your Bet In Blackjack

But what happens when you win on the first hand? Let’s say you hit blackjack on your very first hand—lucky, but certainly not impossible.

Let’s further say that you bet $100 on that firsthand and the casino pays 3:2 on a natural, so you’re now up $50.

What happens when you walk away? You walk away with $50.

See, the house edge only means something over thousands of hands—tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands—all the hands that you play and that everyone else plays.

But if you only play a few hands (even a few dozen), you’re not in the realm of statistics anymore, you’re in the realm of randomness and luck.

If you walk away from the table before you start to lose (and you will start to lose if you play enough hands), then you’ve just beaten the odds.

When Do You Place Your Bet In Blackjack Card Game

The same can be said for losing, however, if you find yourself down, cutting your losses may be the best way to go. It’s certainly possible you can win your money back and get on top again, but on average, you are literally paying money to play, in the form of that 1% of your bet that the house is claiming on average.

The Solid Base of the House Edge That You Can Never Overcome

While we can talk all day long about blackjack strategy and how much money you make on a natural and all that jazz, I think it’s instructive to look at the origin of the house edge in the first place.

Every game you play in a casino has some simple rule that automatically guarantees the house and edge of some sort. Games of pure luck keep that house edge rigid, for example, there’s not much you can do to influence the odds of a roulette wheel. You place your bet, you let that sucker spin, and you either win or you lose. That’s that.

When To Place Bet In Blackjack

Blackjack’s house edge may be much more flexible given how you can apply strategy, but the foundation of the edge comes from the simple fact that you can bust before the dealer even has a chance to play their hand.

Think about it! If you bust, the dealer might have busted as well, but it still counts as a win for the dealer because you bust first. The dealer doesn’t have to reveal their hand until the end.

That translates into a huge advantage for the dealer. The house starts off with such an enormous advantage that all those other rules have to be put into effect just to get the darn thing down to something reasonable, and even then, you need a solid strategy if you’re going to beat the house.

What Is a Blackjack Strategy?

A blackjack strategy is essentially a set of rules that takes into account probabilities of cards turning up and then makes recommendations one what you should play based on your hand and the card the dealer has revealed.

While there are more than a few blackjack strategies out there, you’re going to need to do at least some studying if you want to understand how to reduce the house edge and get yourself to a place where you can at least have a chance of making some profit.

Remember, even with a strategy, the house still maintains that edge. There’s no way around it. So, on top of whatever strategy you come up with, it’s still a good idea to learn how to get out when the gettin’s good.

Sometimes, you’re going to walk away when you feel like you’re on a winning streak. At the beginning, I say that you’re going to have a bad time if you don’t like math, and it’s true. Every hand you play is a complete tossup. There’s no such thing as having a hot or cold streak.

The only way you beat the house is to quit when you’re ahead.

Conclusion

When Should You Increase Your Bet In Blackjack

The house edge works in blackjack in just about the same way it works in every other game, that is to say, it works for the house and against you. Learn some blackjack strategy, take free gambling lessons at some of the bigger casinos, learn what you can learn from watching the pros, but ultimately, if you want to beat the house edge, learn to walk away.